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UK PREVIEW
UK PREVIEW: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is due to release UK
unemployment and earnings data for the month of June on Tuesday. Ahead of the
release, MNI's Data team note that Analysts tend to overestimate June
unemployment: In the last sixteen years, analysts have tended to slightly
overestimate unemployment for the month of June, by an average of 0.02 pp over
this period. Moreover, four out of the six overestimates since 2002 have come in
the last five years, suggesting that the tendency to overestimate June
unemployment has become more prevalent recently. It adds, since the beginning of
2014, the percentage of part-time workers unable to find full-time jobs has been
trending downwards, whilst vacancies have been on an upward trend. These factors
support the argument of little to no slack in the economy, which is also a
reoccurring theme highlighted by the recent REC jobs survey data. For the full
report please see MNI Main Wire 5 things 1505BST or contact us.

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