The SARB rate decision is due at.......>

SOUTH AFRICA: The SARB rate decision is due at some point today (historically,

the press conference is announced at around 1400BST/0900ET, with the rate

decision itself following around 10 minutes later (in May, the headline crossed

at 1411BST/0911ET). The Bank today are seen cutting rates by 25bps, but analyst

forecasts are far from unanimous. Of the 22 surveyed by Bloomberg, 1 sees a

50bps cut, 17 see a 25bps cut and 4 see no change in rates. 

- Slipping inflation (helping pressure inflation expectations to record lows)

and soft growth would be the justification for any policy action today, although

easing on the fiscal side could alleviate some of these pressures going forward,

particularly infrastructure spending, with the country's growth still hampered

by persistent power cuts.

- The ZAR has been firming over the past month or so despite expectations of

policy easing as soon as this month, with the SARB seen having their arm twisted

by a more activist outlook from the Fed and ECB. Any suggestions that the SARB's

model sees rates below 6.50% by end-2019 could see USD/ZAR bounce back toward

the 14.2038 200-dma.