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The start of the Central Bank meetings

BUNDS
  • Bund remains within the mid past few session range, but the contract is slowly looking like it is forming a potential rising wedge (a bearish signal), although short term Omicron concerns are likely to keep the contract underpinned into year end.
  • Volumes have once again been very light overnight and since the cash open.
  • Focus today is on the FOMC and as noted in the MNI preview, in a nutshell:
  • The FOMC is expected to shift in a hawkish direction as it weighs rising inflation risks.
  • This shift will include a doubling of the pace of the asset purchase taper, a more aggressive rate “dot plot”, and an adjustment in the Statement language (including eliminating the word “transitory” to describe inflation).
  • There are still some very interesting debates across the pond, and on this side of the Atlantic, with some seeing the latest inflation data as the peak of the inflation, again this is one of the major debate going forward and in turn the pace and timing of the hiking cycle.
  • In terms of Data, we get final CPIs for France, Spain and Italy, which won't move the needle.
  • Out of the US, some attention on Retail Sales, but this will be superseded by the Fed.
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