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The statement started with guarded optimism.....>

RBA
RBA: The statement started with guarded optimism re: the health of the global
econ, although it tips its hat to the risks posed by Coronavirus after noting
that risks from the Sino-U.S. trade war remain, although they have de-escalated.
- GDP growth exp. little, if at all, changed, an upside surprise vs. most house
calls, although it does flag bushfires & Coronavirus as temporary headwinds.
- Also noted that "The household sector has been adjusting to a protracted
period of slow wages growth and, last year, to a decline in housing prices, with
the result that consumption has been quite weak. Following this period of
balance-sheet adjustment, consumption growth is expected to pick up gradually."
- No change re: the assessment of labour market, outside recent moves. Progress
towards full employment exp. to remain gradual.
- Bank exp. some fluctuation around 2.0% for inflation over next couple of years
(perhaps an upgrade coming in Friday's SoMP projections). (removes trimmed mean)
- The RBA noted that the AUD is around its lowest levels over recent times.
- Closing paragraph clearly cognisant of close proximity to cash rate's ELB.
There was also a re-focus on the labour market dynamics re: the path for MonPol.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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