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The UK's July retail sales data, due.....>

UK PREVIEW
UK PREVIEW: The UK's July retail sales data, due to be published on Thursday,
will show if the sector bounced back from a weak June. Ahead of the release,
MNI's Data team note that analysts are not convinced though, with the median
estimate taken from MNI's poll of forecasters pointing to flat m/m growth in
total sales volumes and a -0.1% m/m fall in ex-fuel volumes. Analysts over
optimistic in July: Analysts have over-estimated y/y total retail sales six
times out of the last seven years, with the only under-estimate coming in 2016,
by 1.3 percentage points (pp). On average, the over-estimate is 0.39pp. Taking
out 2016 pushes the average over-estimate up to 0.63pp, suggesting July's median
estimate of 2.7% y/y could surprise to the downside. For the full report please
see MNI Main Wire 1235BST or contact us.

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