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July 03, 2018 04:32 GMT

The weakness in the yuan is acting as....>

Stuart Allsopp

KOREAN WON

KOREAN WON: The weakness in the yuan is acting as an additional headwind to the

Korean won, which already faces mounting downside risks from widening interest

rate differentials with the US.

- USDKRW currently trades at 1,122.55, rising 0.3% today in line with yuan

weakness, and the broader trend is for further gains.

- The 2-year swap spread is now 87bps in the US's favour, rising 80bps since the

start of the year. While real yields (based on long-term breakeven inflation

expectations) are still 40bps higher in Korea, the differential continues to

head in the USD's favour.

- With the CDS also rising from its lows in recent weeks amid small signs of

global credit stress, the won's fair value is further being eroded, suggesting

further upside ahead for USDKRW.

Markets Foreign Exchange News

Stuart Allsopp

Markets Foreign Exchange News

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