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Week Ahead (2/3)

  • Furthermore we will also receive official ONS monthly activity data for September and the first print of Q3 GDP. The November MPR forecasts see a flat Q3 GDP print (-0.02%Q/Q) while the Bloomberg consensus sees a -0.1%Q/Q print (with two-way risks). The monthly GDP print is also expected to fall by -0.1%M/M in September, albeit with upside risks with each of the main components (services, IP, construction) all expected to show small falls. As we noted above, activity data has been taking on increasing importance for the MPC as they view it as a way to assess impact of the passthrough of previous rate hikes.
  • We have already seen the construction PMI (a little weaker than expected, but still an improvement on the prior month) and we will also receive RICS hour price data and BRC retail sales. Next week will of course see the only inflation print ahead of the December MPC meeting and the penultimate ONS labour market report.
  • In terms of MPC appearances this week, the highlight is likely to be Bailey’s keynote address at the Central Bank of Ireland ‘Financial System Conference, achieving good outcomes in an uncertain world’ on Wednesday. We will also hear from Chief Economist Huw Pill twice this week: in an MPR virtual Q&A this afternoon and on Thursday at a regional economic summit.

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