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Week Ahead (1/3)

UK
  • Last week’s MPC meeting saw the MPC vote to keep rates on hold with a 6-3 vote split - new member Breeden voting for unchanged rates as expected and the 3 members who votes for 25bp hikes in September continuing to vote for 25bp hikes. For more on the decision see the MNI BOE Review (where we also summarise over 20 sellside views). The MPC continues to see a near-term bias towards potentially needing to do more hikes if the data surprises adversely while it tried to communicate that cuts would not be required for around a year or so. But it continues to look at activity data to try to calibrate how much of its previous tightening has passed through to the real economy.
  • Against this backdrop, this week sees the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs released overnight in the early hours of Wednesday. This has become one of the most-quoted reports on the labour market by MPC members. Indeed, the Bank’s paper on labour market forecasting found that the REC report was the third best predictor of employment growth two quarters ahead (behind the BOE’s Agent’s Survey and the PMI and well ahead of the LFS data) and the best predictor of pay growth two quarters ahead. With the ONS’ official data also in a transition phase to a new methodology, there will be even greater focus on survey data – with the REC data an important component.
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