TLTRO Expectations For Today

Re-upping our outlook for today's early TLTRO repayments (at 1105GMT/1205CET) here; some sell-side views below (central expectation E600bln today; range from fairly negligible to as much as E1.5trn. vs E2.1trn of TLTROs outstanding).

• Barclays: E600bln early repayments, possibly as early as Nov, but estimates are highly uncertain both in terms of repayment and timing (Nov vs Dec vs Jan).
• BBVA: The changes to TLTRO conditions are "unlikely to trigger a massive, generalised flow of early repayment in the first windows available".
• BofA: Banks to repay between E1trn and E1.5trn in the upcoming window.
• BNP:Around E650bln by end-2022 possible, with communication from Spanish banks alone suggesting E200bln of that. Banks in core and semi-core countries are more undecided, with regulatory considerations becoming paramount in decision-making. With banks needing more time to assess the situation, Nov likely to see a lower repayment than Dec.
• Danske: The Nov 23 repayment could trigger "a large significant drop in excess liquidity of EUR 500bn-1tr"
• Goldman: "full TLTRO repayments should free about E390bn of government bond collateral and thus contribute to swap spread tightening. That being said, given the recent tightening and possibility of funding pressures, it is unclear how much more tightening can be expected in the near-term."
• ING: Risk is skewed towards a smaller repayment vs consensus; penciling in E400bln. Likely to have only a marginal impact.
• JPM: Around E500-700bln to be repaid in November.
• Nordea: Expectations for early repayments are quite high in the range of E500-1,000bln by year-end, but the amount of German bonds posted as collateral vs these loans is likely to be small.