Today's Retail Sales and IPPI A Prelude To Tuesday’s CPI

Retail sales for Apr/May advance and input cost inflation for May are both released at 0830ET.

• Bloomberg consensus sees nominal retail sale growth of 0.7% M/M in April, in line with last month’s advance estimate, following -0.2% M/M in March.
• For once there is seen to be more limited impact from auto sales, with retail ex auto seen rising 0.6% M/M.
• However, with gasoline prices surging in April, ex gas & auto sales should be weaker (RBC eye core sales holding steady) along possibly with tepid overall volumes.
• Looking to the May advance, CIBC write it “could point to a broadly flat sales in both nominal and volume terms.”

• IPPI inflation meanwhile is seen at 0.4% M/M in May after a particularly strong 1.5% in April.
• The ex-petroleum series will be watched more closely after three consecutive strong increases including 0.9% M/M in March before 1.4% in April.
• Tuesday’s CPI should still clearly hold more sway on markets though. The minutes from the BoC’s decision to cut rates on Jun 5 for the first time this cycle showed a consideration of waiting until July to cut but ultimately four months of core CPI easing warranted the move.