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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
JAPAN DATA
The Tokyo October CPI print comfortably beat expectations in terms of the headline. We printed at 3.3% y/y, versus 2.8% forecast (prior was 2.8%). The ex fresh food (core) measure was 2.7%y/y, versus 2.5% forecast (2.5% prior). The core measure which excludes fresh food and energy came in at 3.8%y/y, versus 3.7% expected (prior was 3.9%). See the chart below.
- In terms of the detail, prices were up 0.9% m/m (seasonally adjusted). The core measure rose 0.7%m/m, versus flat in September. The core measure excluding energy as well was also firmer at 0.3% m/m, but only modestly above the September 0.1% pace.
- Goods inflation rose 1.6% m/m (0.4% prior), while services inflation rose 0.4% m/m (flat prior).
- The upside headline surprise was mainly driven by utilities (+7.4% m/m, versus -2.6% in September). Food price gains remained solid as well. Parts of services also picked up - transport, communication (+0.5%), entertainment (1.5%) and medical (+0.1%). These sub-indices were negative in September.
- At the margin the data should be a hawkish development for the BoJ, particularly with core inflation barely off cyclical highs (although base effects become more favorable in months ahead). Note next Tuesday sees the BoJ meeting outcome.
- USD/JPY has been relatively steady post the data though, only down marginally, the pair last near 150.35.
Fig 1: Tokyo CPI Y/Y
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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