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Trade Data Just Goods, Strong Capex Imports in Q3

AUSTRALIA DATA

The merchandise trade surplus narrowed in September to its lowest since March 2021. It fell $3.37bn on the month to $6.79bn due to a strong increase in imports. The data are nominal and so are also impacted by moves in trade prices, especially for commodities. They also now exclude services. Strong Q3 capex and consumption imports signal solid H2 domestic demand.

  • Merchandise exports fell 1.4% m/m in September after rising 4.6% with both moves driven by non-monetary gold (-39.2%). They are now down 14% y/y after -8.1%. The other major categories all rose on the month with rural goods up 5% m/m and non-rural +1.7% but both are down sharply on the year.
  • Imports of goods rose 7.5% m/m following a 0.8% m/m drop in August to be up 2% y/y. Consumer goods imports rose 0.3% m/m and 5.1% y/y due to strength in clothing and some smaller categories. Non-industrial transport fell 2.7% m/m. Capital goods increased a robust 23.3% m/m and 15.3% y/y with strong rises across categories especially aircraft (+74.6%) and industrial transport equipment (+73.8%). Nominal capex imports rose 41.6% q/q in Q3, signalling strong Q3 capex.
  • The ABS no longer includes monthly services trade data and it will now only appear in the Balance of Payments data next scheduled for December 5.
Australia merchandise imports y/y% 3-month average

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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