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Trade Figures Disappoint, Recovery Likely To Be Gradual

SOUTH KOREA
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January trade figures were disappointing, with export growth coming in at -16.6% y/y (-11.1% forecast, -9.6% prior), while imports printed as expected -2.6% y/y (prior -2.5%). The trade deficit ballooned out to -$12.69bn, versus -$9.27bn expected and -$4.69bn prior.

  • Export growth continues to trend lower, now at levels last seen in early 2020 (we troughed around -26% in April 2020).
  • There is some hope of improved conditions going forward, the first chart below overlays export growth against export expectations from South Korean manufacturers (sourced from the BoK).
  • The most recent survey showed a slight uptick after a sharp downturn through the latter stages of 2023. We remain at depressed levels though and while China's exit from CZS should aid demand, the recovery is not expected to be V shaped.
  • The consensus looks for real export growth to be back at 3.0% y/y by end of this year (we were at -4.4% in Q4 of last year).

Fig 1: South Korean Exports Versus Manufacturers' Expectations

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January trade figures were disappointing, with export growth coming in at -16.6% y/y (-11.1% forecast, -9.6% prior), while imports printed as expected -2.6% y/y (prior -2.5%). The trade deficit ballooned out to -$12.69bn, versus -$9.27bn expected and -$4.69bn prior.

  • Export growth continues to trend lower, now at levels last seen in early 2020 (we troughed around -26% in April 2020).
  • There is some hope of improved conditions going forward, the first chart below overlays export growth against export expectations from South Korean manufacturers (sourced from the BoK).
  • The most recent survey showed a slight uptick after a sharp downturn through the latter stages of 2023. We remain at depressed levels though and while China's exit from CZS should aid demand, the recovery is not expected to be V shaped.
  • The consensus looks for real export growth to be back at 3.0% y/y by end of this year (we were at -4.4% in Q4 of last year).

Fig 1: South Korean Exports Versus Manufacturers' Expectations

Keep reading...Show less