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Bearish Conditions Dominate


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Traders await the Wed 8:15am ET.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: Traders await the Wed 8:15am ET ADP private payrolls and Fri
8:30am ET  Sept. jobs report. The MNI economist poll has a 73,000 median
estimate for the Sept. jobs report. 
- Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti expect "only a 50k
gain on headline (Sept.) nonfarm payrolls (+50k private)" but still "this may be
enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%." - They add "weather
workers series" in "Hsehld survey should provide a reasonable sense of the
magnitude of the hurricane-related disruptions to the payroll data." They cited
"considerable uncertainty" on "payroll forecast and Wed ADP survey (+50k
forecast vs. +237k previously) may provide further clues." 
- Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy expects Sept. NFP will "decline 45K, with
private sector payrolls down 25K," and "0.3% m/m increase in average hourly
earnings combined with a 2.5% YoY rise in AHE" and "a 4.5% unemployment rate." 
- He adds Sept jobs "is going to be tough to parse" due to hurricane

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