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Treasuries Bull Flatten As Longs Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull flattened after the peak of the yesterday's sell-off in the middle of the Asia session was reversed having seen yields hit new cyclical highs across the curve and with the US 10Y getting close to 3% with 2.977%.
  • Heightened levels and a view that inflation will peak this quarter saw BofA strategists go long 10Y USTs at 2.83%, targeting 2.25% with a stop at 3.10%.
  • Putin saying Russia will continue its military operation in Ukraine has helped drive the day’s rally further.
  • 2YY -4.3bps at 2.548%, 5YY -6.9bps at 2.848%, 10YY -7.7bps at 2.859%, 30YY -7.4bps at 2.921%.
  • TYM2 is up 13 ticks at 119-16+ on solid volumes. It sits off the intraday low of 118-19+ that now forms initial support. A break there would open 118-02+ (0.618 proj of the Mar 7-28-31 price swing).
  • Fedspeak: Daly (’24 voter), Evans (’23), Bostic (’23) all slated to speak with potential for non-scheduled appearances.
  • Data: Existing home sales (1000ET) and Fed’s Beige Book (1400ET) likely the pick but weekly MBA mortgage apps also get a look to see the impact of mortgage rates moving higher.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 119-Day bill auction (1130ET)

UST 2s10s and individual yieldsSource: Bloomberg

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