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Treasuries Extend Yesterday's Rally

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have rallied 3-4bps across most of the curve with only the very long end lagging, a continuation of the sharper rally in the second half of yesterday’s session.
  • 2YY -3.0bps at 2.276%, 5YY -4.0bps at 2.398%, 10YY -3.3bps at 2.316%, 30YY -1.3bps at 2.461%.
  • Front end yields have fallen 18bps from March 29 highs, seemingly as Russia rotates towards greater focus on the Donbas and less so on Kyiv and other areas, even though peace talks remain far from complete.
  • TYM2 sits up 12+ ticks on the day at 123-00+ with average volumes. The trend direction is bearish but the contract remains in a corrective phase, eyeing initial resistance at 123-12 (Mar 23 high) whilst support is the bear trigger of 120-30+ (Mar 28 low).
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (voter) gives opening remarks at a conference on the future of NYC.
  • Data: February core PCE inflation (cons +0.4% M/M after +0.5%) and personal incomes & spending plus the March MNI Chicago PMI are the picks today.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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