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Treasuries Futures Trend Lower, US CPI Later

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 110-20, - 03 from New York closing levels.

Treasuries are trading in a very small range during the Asia session, volumes have remained low, ahead of US CPI later today.


  • Treasuries futures have traded rangebound today, hitting a low of 110-19+ and a high of 110-23+, and currently trading at 110-20, volatility is expected to remain low heading into the US session.
  • Taking a look at the technical levels ahead of US CPI later today - Mar'24 10Y future levels to watch on the downside are 110-16 Dec 13 & Feb 9 lows, a break of 109-31+ the Dec 11 lows, would opens a bigger move down to 109-17, 50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase. To the upside a break above 111-09 the 20-day EMA, opens up a move to the Feb 1 highs of 113-06+, which could then put in play the 113-12 the Dec 12 high and bull trigger.
  • Cash yields have done little today, the curve is unchanged to 0.3bps wider. The 10yr sits at 4.181% challenging last week's highs, but has yet to make any material test on the key 4.20%, a break above 4.20% post CPI could open up a move to the Dec 12 highs of 4.28%.
  • MNI US CPI Preview: Used Cars Drag Seen Clashing With Firmer Non-Housing Services ( https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59940/USCPIPrevFeb2024.pdf )
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