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Treasuries Nudge Lower After Last Week's Substantial Gains

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a solid bear steepening in the European session although the outright moves across the curve pale into insignificance after the rallies seen at the tail end of last week on expectations of softer growth after a string of activity indicators missed (2YY sub 3% having been 3.25% on Thu, 5YY more than 30bps below the Thu peak). The front-end sees only a small change on the day with Fed hike expectations keeping to Friday’s adjustment lower and could stay that way ahead of the FOMC on Wed, although will be eyed ahead of the 2Y auction later today.
  • 2YY +1.7bps at 2.987%, 5YY +2.7bps at 2.870%, 10YY +4.4bps at 2.794% and 30YY +6.7bps at 3.039%.
  • TYU2 sits just 2 ticks lower at 119-26+ and in doing so keeps close to recent highs, eyeing support at 120-11 (Jul 22 high) with a bull trigger then at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high). Volumes are very much average.
  • Data: A relatively light docket today although the Dallas (July) and less so Chicago Fed (June) activity surveys give another steer on latest regional economic developments after the weakness of Friday’s nationwide PMI.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $45B 2Y Note auction (91282CFA4) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $54B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions – 1130ET
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