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US TSYS SUMMARY: Treasuries started weaker, giving back some of the gains seen
last week on the back of a large North Korean-inspired risk-off trade. A lack of
North Korean news from the weekend opened up the downside to Treasuries and
upside to equities.
- At 9.20BST, news that China had imposed an import ban on North Korean coal,
iron, lead etc suggested increased hopes of a diplomatic solution and gave a
further push lower to US bond futures contracts.
- There has been no increase in the yield premium that October T-bills are
carrying because of the debt ceiling, if anything such bills have done better
than others. However, the bill curve remains inverted between Oct and early-Dec.
- The USD curve has moved around 2bp higher between 0 and 3Y but has steepened
from 3-10Y and flattened into the Bond section of the curve.
- The 3-4y (2021 maturities) remain the peak area of the curve from a roll/carry
perspective and has a slightly different trading pattern in recent days.
- There are no data releases although the weekly 3m and 6m bill auctions are