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Treasuries try to find equilibrium ahead of CPI

BONDS
  • The Treasury curve has seen the most interesting moves overnight with 2-year UST yields up 3.0bp while 10-year yields move up 1.1bp. These have largely been retracements following Powell's less hawkish than expected comments yesterday as the market looks towards CPI later today (the highlight of the session). See our preview of US CPI here. We argue that the lasting market reaction will be not just determined by the magnitude of the surprise, but the likely persistence.
  • In 10-year space, gilts are the outperformers again (following yesterday's outperformance). There is probably a little more uncertainty in the UK given the political situation at present. Boris Johnson will be tested at PMQs today after allegedly attending a summer party, but this is unlikely to have any real impact on monpol or fiscal policy, so shouldn't really impact markets too much other than through uncertainty channels.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 128-11 with 10y UST yields up 0.8bp at 1.745% and 2y yields up 2.5bp at 0.910%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.22 today at 170.01 with 10y Bund yields down -1.8bp at -0.85% and Schatz yields down -0.8bp at -0.592%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.15 today at 123.23 with 10y yields down -1.6bp at 1.153% and 2y yields down -0.7bp at 0.824%.
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