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Treasuries Unwind BoC Rally With ECB, GDP Eyed

US TSYS
  • Ahead of the ECB, cash Tsys have unwound the rally after yesterday’s surprise downshift to a 50bp hike from the BoC. Front- and long-end yields alike are still some 20bps lower than Friday levels before some weaker US data helped drive a rally. ECB aside, that should see particular focus on today’s GDP Q3 advance, with the final Atlanta Fed nowcast implying upside risk with 3.1% vs consensus 2.4%. 7Y supply also draws attention after yesterday’s 5Y traded through after recent tails for both 2Y and 20Y.
  • 2YY +5bps at 4.453%, 5YY +7.2bps at 4.256%, 10YY +7.3bps at 4.076%, and 30YY +5.9bps at 4.197%.
  • TYZ2 trades 13+ ticks lower at 110-21+ on below average volumes (ECB eyed) pulling further back off yesterday’s high of 111-08+ which forms resistance doubled up with the 20-day EMA of 111-08. Support is seen at 109-20 (Oct 25 low) below which sits the bear trigger of 108-26+ (Oct 21 low).
  • Data: A solid docket with the Q3 GDP advance, preliminary durable goods for Sep and weekly jobless claims all at 0830ET before the Kansas City Fed mfg index at 1100ET.
  • Bond issuance: $35B 7Y Note auction (91282CFT3) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: $65B 4W, $55B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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