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Treasury Futures Are Little Changed, Ranges Tight

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  • Treasury futures have done very little on Tuesday, ranges are tight (10Y - high 107-30+, low 107-27) and volumes are on the low side, following on from the US session when volumes were at about 60% verse the 20-day average, Jun'24 10Y contract is now unchanged from NY closing levels at 107-28, a downward trend remains and a bear cycle remains in play, initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low), while initial resistance is 108-22+ (Apr 19 high).
  • Cash Treasury curve little changed Today, with the 2Y yield +0.5bps to 4.976%, 10Y +0.4bps to 4.613%, the 2y10y is unchanged at -35.879.
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 4-5bps lower, ACGBs are 1-4bps lower and JGBs are 1-5bps higher, in the EM space INDON & PHILIP yields are 1-4bps lower.
  • Projected rate cut pricing running steady to mildly lower vs. late Friday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at 11.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.3bp.
  • Looking ahead: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, S&P Global US PMI, New Home Sales
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  • Treasury futures have done very little on Tuesday, ranges are tight (10Y - high 107-30+, low 107-27) and volumes are on the low side, following on from the US session when volumes were at about 60% verse the 20-day average, Jun'24 10Y contract is now unchanged from NY closing levels at 107-28, a downward trend remains and a bear cycle remains in play, initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low), while initial resistance is 108-22+ (Apr 19 high).
  • Cash Treasury curve little changed Today, with the 2Y yield +0.5bps to 4.976%, 10Y +0.4bps to 4.613%, the 2y10y is unchanged at -35.879.
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 4-5bps lower, ACGBs are 1-4bps lower and JGBs are 1-5bps higher, in the EM space INDON & PHILIP yields are 1-4bps lower.
  • Projected rate cut pricing running steady to mildly lower vs. late Friday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at 11.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.3bp.
  • Looking ahead: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, S&P Global US PMI, New Home Sales