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Treasury Futures Edge Higher, Curve Steepens, UofM Sentiment Later

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 futures have edged higher during the morning session, and trade just off earlier highs of 108-07+ to trade at 108-06. 10Y futures have touched oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI now hovering at 30, levels we have not seen since Oct 2023 when the 10y yield hit 5%, while 5Y futures are now trading below the 30 mark.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 108-00 (round number support), below here 107-26+ 2.382 (proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing), while a break here would open a move to 107-07+ (76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg). While to the upside resistance holds at 109-02/26+ (Apr 8 low / Apr 10 high), a break back above here would open up 110-06 (Apr 4 high)
  • Cash Treasury curve has bull-steepened today with yields 2-3bps lower, the 2Y yield is -3bps at 4.931%, 10Y -2.7bp to 4.560%, while the 2y10y is +0.310 at -37.337.
  • (Bloomberg) Bonds Are Data Dependent Too as Yields March Higher (See link)
  • Looking Ahead: Import Price Index, U. of Mich. Sentiment later tonight & Fed Speak
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