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Treasury Futures Off Earlier Highs Ahead Of Fed Speaker Later

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y started the week on a positive note reaching an earlier high of 110-30, before erasing most of the mornings gains to trade down at 110-25+ and now back below initial resistance of 110-26+.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low). Futures now trade back below initial resistance of 110-26+ (Mar 21 high), if we can manage to get back above initial resistance the target becomes 111-00+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
  • Cash yields are flat to 1.5bps higher today with the curve slightly flatter today, the 2yr +0.8bps at 4.598%, 10yr -1bp at 4.208% while the 2y10yr is +0.129 at -39.190
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic now anticipates only one interest-rate cut this year, likely occurring later than previously expected, citing less confidence in inflation trajectory. Despite Fed officials' outlook for three rate cuts, Bostic notes the economy's resilience, advocating for patience and a slower pace in shrinking the central bank's balance sheet.
  • Monday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
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