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Treasury Futures Steady, In Oversold Territory, UofM Sentiment Later

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 futures are little changed in the first few hours of trading on Friday, ranges have been very tight. The contract opened the session at a intraday low of 108-01+, before making a high of 108-04, we now trade at 108-03 in line with NY closing levels. 10Y futures have touched oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI now hovering at 30, levels we have not seen since Oct 2023 when the 10y yield hit 5%.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 108-00 (round number support), below here 107-26+ 2.382 (proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing), while a break here would open a move to 107-07+ (76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg). While to the upside resistance holds at 109-02/26+ (Apr 8 low / Apr 10 high), a break back above here would open up 110-06 (Apr 4 high)
  • Cash Treasury curve twist steepened on Thursday, with yields 1.2bps lower to 6bps higher, as cash trading gets underway in Asia on Friday yields are 1-2bps lower, the 2Y yield is -1.7bps at 4.944%, 10Y -1.6bp to 4.570%, while the 2y10y is unchanged at -37.587.
  • Looking Ahead: Import Price Index, U. of Mich. Sentiment later tonight & Fed Speak
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