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Treasury Futures Steady, Ranges Very Tight

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures opened a touch lower and have since managed to trade sideways and in very tight ranges. TU is -0-01⅜ lower at 101-27¾, while TY is -04 at 109-06
  • Volumes: TU 45k, FV 73k TY 90k
  • Tsys Flows: FV Block Seller & Buyer, TU/UXY Block Steepener
  • Looking at TYU4 technical levels, initial support is at 108-27 (Jun 3 lows), with 108-04+ (Trendline drawn from the Apr low) the next target. While to the upside initial resistance is at 110-21 (June 7 highs), a break here would see a test of 110-27+ (1.00 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing)
  • Cash treasury curve is slightly steeper today, with the 2Y +0.2bp to 4.891%, the 10Y +1.2bps at 4.447% while the 2y10y was +0.770 at -44.117.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered defeats in the European Parliament elections.
  • Late year rate cut projections have receded vs. late Thursday levels (*): June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -8% w/ cumulative at -2.3bp (-5.9bp) at 5.307%, Sep'24 cumulative -13.7bp (-21.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -20.3bp (-30.7bp), Dec'24 -37.4bp (-49.7bp).
  • Looking ahead: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
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