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Treasury Yields Ending Session Near Day’s Highs With Powell Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are holding close to session highs, with yields +2-3.5bps higher on the day after more than reversing an overnight bid (with 10Y real yields also +3.5bps). The grind higher for yields came through most of the US session with little by way of headline drivers and also saw a small pull back from fresh multi-decade lows for 2s10s at -93bps.
  • In futures space, TYM3 trades 3 ticks lower at 111-00, recently off lows of 110-30+ with volumes below average ahead of Powell (1.13M vs 1.4M av). It helps firm up the view that Friday’s bounce appears corrective whilst support remains at the bear trigger of 110-12+ (Mar 2 low).
  • As for Fed rate expectations, the terminal has pushed back higher to 5.48% in Sep (+3bp on the day) but remains off Thursday’s cycle high of 5.51% before just 13bp of cuts to 5.35% come year-end.
  • Upcoming events: Powell headlines tomorrow with a Senate appearance at 1000ET, before interest in 3Y supply in what’s otherwise a light docket with the week’s data calendar gearing up to payrolls on Friday.

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