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Trend Unemployment Rate Continues To Drift Higher

NORWAY
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The Norwegian LFS trend unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (vs an upwardly revised 3.8% prior). This is not the main unemployment rate tracked and forecasted by the Norges Bank (they look more closely at the unemployment claims rate).

  • Nonetheless, the LFS rate has drifted higher since August '23 (from 3.6% to 3.9% now), while the unemployment claims rate has been steady at 1.9%.
  • The Norges Bank will thus still be watchful of trends in the LFS rate, in case these dynamics begin to show themselves in the claims data.
  • In her annual address, Governor Wolden Bache noted that Norway should be prepared for "somewhat higher unemployment", even with rates unlikely to be raised above their current 4.5% level.
  • Preliminary data on employment and earnings from today's survey shows the number of employees rising 1.0% M/M (SA), number of jobs rising 1.2% M/M (SA) and average renumeration in NOK rising 1.6% M/M.

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The Norwegian LFS trend unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (vs an upwardly revised 3.8% prior). This is not the main unemployment rate tracked and forecasted by the Norges Bank (they look more closely at the unemployment claims rate).

  • Nonetheless, the LFS rate has drifted higher since August '23 (from 3.6% to 3.9% now), while the unemployment claims rate has been steady at 1.9%.
  • The Norges Bank will thus still be watchful of trends in the LFS rate, in case these dynamics begin to show themselves in the claims data.
  • In her annual address, Governor Wolden Bache noted that Norway should be prepared for "somewhat higher unemployment", even with rates unlikely to be raised above their current 4.5% level.
  • Preliminary data on employment and earnings from today's survey shows the number of employees rising 1.0% M/M (SA), number of jobs rising 1.2% M/M (SA) and average renumeration in NOK rising 1.6% M/M.