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CANADA: Trudeau Dismisses '51st State' Comments As LPC Climbs In Polls

CANADA
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The latest opinion polling from Léger shows a stark turnaround in support for the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), which has seen its polling scores rise significantly in recent weeks amid the resignation of PM Justin Trudeau and the aggressive rhetoric towards the country from US President Donald Trump. The PM has again addressed Trump's comments about the potential annexation of Canada and the country becoming the '51st state' of the US, saying conversations about the idea are " nonstarter" and that "It's never going to happen."

  • Trump's comments continue to spur a consumer backlash in Canada, with reports of boycotts of US-made products and Canadians cancelling visits to the US.
  • A 'rally round the flag' effect appears to be bolstering support for the incumbent party, while also eating into that of the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
  • Léger,Federal election poll, Fieldwork 7-10 Feb. Conservatives: 40% (-7), Liberals 31% (+10), New Democratic Party: 14% (-3), Bloc Quebecois: 7% (-2), Green Party: 6% (+2). Chgs w/13 Jan
  • Same question as above with former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney as LPC leader, returned support levels of: LPC 37%, CPC 37%, NDP 12%.
  • Given that Carney is frontrunner to take over the party leadership in March, this could radically alter the outlook ahead of the next federal election due by October at the latest. Political and market assumptions had been for a comfortable CPC majority post-election, but if the current trend continues this may no longer prove the base-case scenario. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, %

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The latest opinion polling from Léger shows a stark turnaround in support for the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), which has seen its polling scores rise significantly in recent weeks amid the resignation of PM Justin Trudeau and the aggressive rhetoric towards the country from US President Donald Trump. The PM has again addressed Trump's comments about the potential annexation of Canada and the country becoming the '51st state' of the US, saying conversations about the idea are " nonstarter" and that "It's never going to happen."

  • Trump's comments continue to spur a consumer backlash in Canada, with reports of boycotts of US-made products and Canadians cancelling visits to the US.
  • A 'rally round the flag' effect appears to be bolstering support for the incumbent party, while also eating into that of the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
  • Léger,Federal election poll, Fieldwork 7-10 Feb. Conservatives: 40% (-7), Liberals 31% (+10), New Democratic Party: 14% (-3), Bloc Quebecois: 7% (-2), Green Party: 6% (+2). Chgs w/13 Jan
  • Same question as above with former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney as LPC leader, returned support levels of: LPC 37%, CPC 37%, NDP 12%.
  • Given that Carney is frontrunner to take over the party leadership in March, this could radically alter the outlook ahead of the next federal election due by October at the latest. Political and market assumptions had been for a comfortable CPC majority post-election, but if the current trend continues this may no longer prove the base-case scenario. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, %

Keep reading...Show less