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Trudeau's Liberals Continue To Slide In Polls As CPC Wins Youth Support

CANADA

The main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has recorded double-digit leads over PM Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) for the first time since October 2011 in a development that could force Trudeau to amore active policy stancein case of a snap election in 2024.

  • In recent months, CPC leader Pierre Poilievre has been able to garner significant support among a crucial electoral cohort for Trudeau, the under-40s. Rising anger at the cost of housing, especially in the electorally-crucial Greater Toronto Area (GTA), has seen many younger renters swing behind Poilievre.
  • In onerecent poll, the lead for the Conservatives over the LPC among voters 60 and over stood at 38% to 34%. Meanwhile among those 30-44 it was 37% to 23% and even among 18-29 year-olds (usually the cohort least inclined to back conservative parties) the CPC's lead was 31% to 26%.
  • Pollingfrom Abacus data shows that among the 43% of respondents that chose housing as one of their main issues of focus in an election, 27% said the CPC were the party best placed to deal with the issue. This compares to 15% for the LPC.
  • The prospect of an autumn 2023 election appears to be fading, but a snap vote would be viewed as increasingly likely should the economy show signs of a recession looming as the gov't seeks to 'get out ahead' of the slowdown.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Nanos Research, Angus Reid, Abacus Data, Leger, Ipsos, Pollara, Mainstreet Research, EKOS, MNI


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