Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
The main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has recorded double-digit leads over PM Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) for the first time since October 2011 in a development that could force Trudeau to amore active policy stancein case of a snap election in 2024.
- In recent months, CPC leader Pierre Poilievre has been able to garner significant support among a crucial electoral cohort for Trudeau, the under-40s. Rising anger at the cost of housing, especially in the electorally-crucial Greater Toronto Area (GTA), has seen many younger renters swing behind Poilievre.
- In onerecent poll, the lead for the Conservatives over the LPC among voters 60 and over stood at 38% to 34%. Meanwhile among those 30-44 it was 37% to 23% and even among 18-29 year-olds (usually the cohort least inclined to back conservative parties) the CPC's lead was 31% to 26%.
- Pollingfrom Abacus data shows that among the 43% of respondents that chose housing as one of their main issues of focus in an election, 27% said the CPC were the party best placed to deal with the issue. This compares to 15% for the LPC.
- The prospect of an autumn 2023 election appears to be fading, but a snap vote would be viewed as increasingly likely should the economy show signs of a recession looming as the gov't seeks to 'get out ahead' of the slowdown.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Nanos Research, Angus Reid, Abacus Data, Leger, Ipsos, Pollara, Mainstreet Research, EKOS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok