Trump Leads Biden In 5/6 Battleground States

A new survey analysis of registered voters from the New York Times has found that former President Donald Trump leads President Biden in five/six crucial 2024 battle ground states. The findings are largely unchanged since the previous NYT/Siena College survey in November, with the Times noting: "Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.”

• The Times notes that, “a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.”
• The report finds that the battlefield races tighten when controlled for likely voters, in particular in Michigan where Biden receives a 5% bump. The report also notes that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., “who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states,” would draw, “roughly equally” from Trump and Biden.
• To win re-election, Biden would likely need to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and carry all the other states he won in 2020.

Figure 1: “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?”