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Trump Maintains Strong Lead In GOP Primary Race But Support "Softening"

US

A new survey from the New York Times has found that former President Donald Trump leads his primary challenges, “across nearly every category and region....”

  • NYT: “The survey comes less than six months before the first 2024 primary contest and... his trials threaten to overlap with primary season — pose an especially unpredictable wild card.”
  • Another widely reported poll fromNPR/PBShas found that Trump’s legal troubles have led to a “softening” of support amongst Republicans.
  • NPR reports that, although Trump remains clear favourite, “Republicans and Republican-leaning independents saying they believe Trump has done "nothing wrong" dropped 9 points in the last month, from 50% to 41%... Trump also dropped 6 points in support with that same group when asked whether they were more likely to support Trump or another candidate, if he continues to run for president.”
  • NPR: “At the same time, though, Trump has become increasingly toxic with the political middle... A slim majority — 51% — of respondents overall said they think Trump did something illegal, including 52% of independents.”

Figure 2: Republicans’ Preferences for the 2024 Presidential Nominee

Source: NYT, Siena Poll

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