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NATGAS: Trump-Putin call Bearish for TTF but Neutral longer term: Platts

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Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.

  • Trump’s comments regarding plans to end the war signal a level flexibility that the White House will expect Putin to match, Platts said.
  • However, an immediate deal would require an instant acceptance of most of Putin’s starting terms – something that can be ruled out completely, Platts said.
  • Putin will also try to improve his negotiating position with spring battlefield gains.
  • Predicting a deal by summer would be optimistic, with the possibility of no deal at all in 2025.
  • Even in the case of a deal, a resumption of large-scale Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe is unlikely.
  • Trump's criticised Germany’s dependence on Russian gas during his first term. Moreover, Gazprom owes Eur13.3b in arbitration to EU companies, a further obstacle.
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Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.

  • Trump’s comments regarding plans to end the war signal a level flexibility that the White House will expect Putin to match, Platts said.
  • However, an immediate deal would require an instant acceptance of most of Putin’s starting terms – something that can be ruled out completely, Platts said.
  • Putin will also try to improve his negotiating position with spring battlefield gains.
  • Predicting a deal by summer would be optimistic, with the possibility of no deal at all in 2025.
  • Even in the case of a deal, a resumption of large-scale Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe is unlikely.
  • Trump's criticised Germany’s dependence on Russian gas during his first term. Moreover, Gazprom owes Eur13.3b in arbitration to EU companies, a further obstacle.