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Trump's CNN Appearance May Harm 2024 Chances


Betting markets have downgraded former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 Presidential election following his appearance on CNN on Wednesday.

  • According to data from Smarkets, Trump’s implied probability of winning the election dropped from 28% shortly before the CNN ‘town hall’ to 23% after the event.
  • New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a potential rival for the 2024 GOP nomination, said of Trump's CNN appearance: "It was weak. It was defensive. It was bitter ... it just reiterated the idea that he cannot win in November. He could get the nomination, but he cannot win in November."
  • Republican operative Matt Whitlock tweeted shortly after the event: "Tonight highlighted the toughest dynamic Republicans face - President Trump's performance tonight had plenty of fun fodder for his biggest fans. But was toxic nuclear waste for the moderates and independents he (and Republicans everywhere) should be winning as Biden collapses."
  • President Biden tweeted: “It’s simple, folks. Do you want four more years of that?”

Figure 2: 2024 US Presidential Election Winner

Source: Smarkets

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