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Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has published a piece examining the likelihood of a similar polling bias that underestimated former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 occurring again in 2024.
- In those elections, the bias was particularly pronounced in the Rust Belt states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with the latter registering a major (~7%) miss on both occasions. If Trump were to be underestimated in these states again, he is a near certainty to win in November. However, Sabato concludes, “there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
- Sabato: “For one thing, other indicators do not really suggest that we’re in the midst of an electoral environment that is much stronger for Republicans than the past two elections (those indicators include special elections in 2023 and 2024 and the recent Washington state top-two primary).
- “While Democrats have now nominated three different opponents against Donald Trump, Trump himself will be on the ballot for a third straight time. It just doesn’t seem likely to us that he will do markedly better than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which is what would happen if the polls were biased against him again.”
Figure 1: 2016 final polling average versus actual results
Source: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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