The latest opinion poll from Techne on the Conservative leadership contest shows Foreign Secretary Liz Truss extending her lead over former Chancellor Rishi Sunak among both party supporters and all voters polled.
- Who would you choose as leader of the Conservative Party? (Techne, Fieldwork 10-11 Aug, chgs w/3-4 Aug, 1,841 respondents)
- All voters: Liz Truss: 43% (+3), Rishi Sunak: 27% (-2), Don't Know: 30% (-1)
- Conservative Supporters: Liz Truss: 60% (+4), Rishi Sunak: 33% (-3), Don't Know: 7% (-1)
Techne, Fieldwork 10-11 Aug, chgs w/3-4 Aug, 1,841 respondents
- Political betting markets remain stable, with bettors assigning a 90% implied probability of Truss being elected next Conservative leader and PM according to data from Smarkets.
- Policy platforms for both candidates remain fluid at present, with each struggling to offer a plan for assisting households with rising inflationary pressures.
- With the ballot closing on 2 September, there is little time for Sunak to turn the contest around, especially considering that despite hustings still occurring, many Conservative members will have already voted.
- The prospect of a shock Sunak win seems unlikely, however polling Conservative party members has often proved a difficult task, and there is the slim prospect that much of the party's grassroot leanings have been misread.