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Truss Odds-On Favourite As Voting Starts In Conservative Leadership Contest


Betting markets continue to show Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the odds-on favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest and become the next UK PM. Data from Smarkets gives Truss a 90.9% implied probability of winning the contest, with former Chancellor Rishi Sunak sitting on an implied probability of just 9.1%.

  • The voting period of the contest begins today, with voting packs beginning to arrive at the homes of the approx. 160k Conservative party members who will decide the next PM over the coming month. The voting period closes 2 September, with the result announced Monday 5 September.
  • The contest has seen both candidates tack hard to the right in an effort to win over the party membership with significant commitments on tax cuts proffered in an attempt to gain support. This morning Sunak announced that should he become PM, the basic rate of income tax would be reduced from 20% to 16% by the end of the next parliament.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next Conservative Party Leader, %

Source: Smarkets

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