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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has moved into first place in betting market implied probability stakes to become the next Conservative party leader, and therefore UK PM. The fifth round of voting among Conservative MPs takes place between 1300-1500BST today, with the result coming at 1600BST (1100ET, 1700CET).
- Today's contest narrows the race from three to two candidates, who will then engage in a weeks-long campaign over the summer in a head-to-head contest to win over the support of approx. 160k Conservative party members. Final result announced 5 Sep, taking over as PM from Boris Johnson 6 Sep.
- In the 19 July fourth round, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak came first with 118 votes (up three from 3rd round), trade minister Penny Mordaunt came second with 92 (+10), Truss third with 86 (+15) and former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch fourth with 59 (+1). With Badenoch eliminated from the contest her 59 votes will go to other candidates, with Truss in prime position to pick up most of these as both she and Badenoch ran on platforms appealing to the right of the party.
- As such, a Truss vs. Sunak run-off appears the most likely outcome of the contest (although Sunak vs. Mordaunt or even Truss vs Mordaunt remain mathematical possibilities).
- Following opinion polling from YouGov released yesterdaythat showed among party members Truss would narrowly beat Mordaunt (48%/42%) and comfortably beat Sunak (54%/35%), betting markets have shifted sharply towards the prospect of a Truss premiership.
- Data from Smarkets shows Truss with a 49.5% implied probability of becoming Conservative leader, with Sunak second on 37.9% and Mordaunt third on 11.4%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability, Next Conservative Leader, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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