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Truss Takes Betting Market Lead For Con Leadership, 5th Round Result 1600BST


Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has moved into first place in betting market implied probability stakes to become the next Conservative party leader, and therefore UK PM. The fifth round of voting among Conservative MPs takes place between 1300-1500BST today, with the result coming at 1600BST (1100ET, 1700CET).

  • Today's contest narrows the race from three to two candidates, who will then engage in a weeks-long campaign over the summer in a head-to-head contest to win over the support of approx. 160k Conservative party members. Final result announced 5 Sep, taking over as PM from Boris Johnson 6 Sep.
  • In the 19 July fourth round, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak came first with 118 votes (up three from 3rd round), trade minister Penny Mordaunt came second with 92 (+10), Truss third with 86 (+15) and former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch fourth with 59 (+1). With Badenoch eliminated from the contest her 59 votes will go to other candidates, with Truss in prime position to pick up most of these as both she and Badenoch ran on platforms appealing to the right of the party.
  • As such, a Truss vs. Sunak run-off appears the most likely outcome of the contest (although Sunak vs. Mordaunt or even Truss vs Mordaunt remain mathematical possibilities).
  • Following opinion polling from YouGov released yesterdaythat showed among party members Truss would narrowly beat Mordaunt (48%/42%) and comfortably beat Sunak (54%/35%), betting markets have shifted sharply towards the prospect of a Truss premiership.
  • Data from Smarkets shows Truss with a 49.5% implied probability of becoming Conservative leader, with Sunak second on 37.9% and Mordaunt third on 11.4%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability, Next Conservative Leader, %

Source: Smarkets

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