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TRY Sustains Post-CBRT Momentum, FOMC Minutes Likely to Inject More Volatility

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades mostly flat around the open, awaiting cues from the BBDXY for directionality ahead of the FOMC minutes today.
  • Yesterday's session saw outsized USD volatility following mixed data releases in retail sales and industrial/manufacturing production – sending reverberations through EM FX.
  • Today is expected to follow the same track with a potential bias for USD strength as market expectations align with a more hawkish set of minutes and key discussion of asset purchase tapering that could pave the way for an interesting Jackson Hole meeting.
  • USD/TRY pared early downside in the latter part of the session after the cross reached 8.40 – sustaining its post-CBRT momentum.
  • Sell-side remains extremely cautious on TRY at these stronger levels, given the elevated likelihood of instability in the coming months – advising a tactical approach in the period leading up to CPI and the next CBRT.
  • The cross closed below the 100dma in yesterday's session, but remains well short of oversold territory on the RSI.
  • Next key levels on the downside at 8.3474 & 8.2860.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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