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- While the HUF has been the worst performing currency in July amid a rising uncertainty (legal disputes with EU) and higher than expected inflation prints (-2.4%), TRY has been the biggest winner this month, up over 1.1% against the US Dollar.
- The political instability in Turkey still remains elevated, but improving coordination between Erdogan and the CBRT has led to some positive momentum in TRY this month.
- Next big TRY event is CPI on August 3rd and for Hungary is NBH meeting next week (July 27), expected to raise its benchmark rate by 30bps.
- TRYHUF cross is up nearly 10% since early June, currently testing key resistance at 35.70 (high of its LT downward trending channel).
- Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 35.95 (100DMA), followed by 36.66, which represents the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 32.28 – 42.89 range.
- In the downside, first support to watch stands at 35, followed by 34.78 (23.6% Fibo).