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Tsy Yld Surge: 30YY at 3.016%, 3Y Highs

US TSYS

Rates trading near session lows after the bell -- yield curves bear flattening after tapping 2-week highs in early trade.

  • Fresh cycle lows after slightly stronger than forecasted Housing Starts (1.793M) and Building Permits (1.873M) for March.
  • Yield curves reversed late overnight steepening, extending flatter amid heavy selling in short end since the open: 2YY surging to 2.6102% high from 2.4273% low. 2s10s curve hit inverted low of -9.561 two weeks ago topped out at 42.897 this morning is trading 33.590 at the moment. 30YY tops 3.0161% - appr 3-year highs.
  • Early blocks contributing (-2s/ultra bond, outright sale 2s) as recession concerns, ability of Fed to engineer a soft landing being sapped after leading hawk StL Fed Bullard opened dialog on chance of 75bp hike at May 4 FOMC late Monday.
  • Late rebuttal from Chicago Fed Evans and Atl Fed Bostic -- neither see more than a 50bp hike in the near term as necessary.
  • Meanwhile, IMF joined World bank opinion from late Monday: knock-on effect of Russia invasion reducing global growth/increase inflation forecasts.
  • Cross asset levels: Gold selling off after nearly topping $2,000 Mon, -31.3 at 1947.5; support for Crude cools: WTI -5.53 at 102.68.
  • On tap for Wednesday: Existing Home Sales (6.02M, 5.78M); MoM (-7.2%, -4.0%) at 1000ET, more Fed speak ahead late Friday blackout.

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