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Tsys At 7-Week Highs On Thanksgiving; German Inversion Deepens

BONDS

European cash curves have flattened Thursday, following through from Wednesday's surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes.

  • German curve inversion has deepened, eyeing both recession risks and softening pipeline price pressures. Similar to Wednesday's PMI theme, French manufacturing confidence and German IFO releases this morning suggested weak activity but clearly subsiding price pressures.
  • US Tsy futures are stronger (though thin trading: cash closed due to Thanksgiving holiday).TY continuation contract at highest since Oct 4.
  • EGB periphery spreads are marginally wider.
  • The UK short end got a boost from comments by BoE's Ramsden which were interpreted as relatively dovish for the noted hawk.
  • ECB Minutes at 1230UK are the highlight for the remainder of the session, with multiple ECB speakers as well (BOE's Pill and Mann, and and ECB's de Guindos, Schnabel, Nagel).
  • Dec Bund futures (RX) up 108 ticks at 142.23 (L: 141.2 / H: 142.35)
  • Dec Gilt futures (G) up 60 ticks at 108.67 (L: 108.18 / H: 108.92)
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 13.5/32 at 113-12 (L: 112-31 / H: 113-14)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.2bps wider at 187.9bps

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