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Tsys Futures Drop On Lower Weekly Jobless Claims, 10yr Tests 4%

US TSYS
  • Tsys curves were flatter on Thursday, with yields continuing the move highs post the move on Monday. The move higher in yields was on the back of lower-than-expected jobless claims, the 10yr briefly traded back above 4%, before ending the session at 3.987%
  • The Sept'24 10yr contract closed -0-07+ at 112-21 just on initial support (Aug 2 lows), after hitting session lows of 112-16+ late in the session. The 2yr closed -0-02¾ at 103-07¼ and still trades slightly above pre-NFP levels.
  • The cash treasury curve bear-flattened, with yields 3-8bps higher. The 2yr was +7.6bps at 4.038%, while the 10yr was +4.8% at 3.988%, the 2s10s was -3.123 at -5.235.
  • The Fed's Chicago President Goolsbee emphasized the need for more data to assess the labor market's stability, noting that while the job market is cooling although it's unclear if it will worsen. He also mentioned that the Fed's focus remains on its dual mandate, regardless of upcoming elections, and expressed some discomfort with potential rate cuts near the presidential election.
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected in the week to Aug 3, at a seasonally adjusted 233k (cons 240k) as they retreated from a slightly upward revised 250k (initial 249k).
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end off early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.5bp (-44.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.5bp (-77.6bp), Dec'24 -103.2bp (-109.3bp).
  • Today, it is a very empty calendar with no data or fed speak.
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