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Tsys Futures Edge Higher, Curves Steeper On Lower Than Expected PMIs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures were weaker heading into US PMI with the 10Y making daily lows of 107-20+ before a lower-than-expected flash PMI data print saw futures gap higher. We reached a daily high of 108-08 after a strong 2Y auction, before trading lower to finish the session at 108-01, where we have reopened in Asia.
  • Treasuries are in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is unchanged and a bear cycle remains in play. Initial resistance is 108-22+ (Apr 19 high), while to the downside, initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury curve bear-steepened on Tuesday with yields -4bps to +1.5bp, with the 2Y yield was -4bps to 4.931%, 10Y -0.8bps to 4.600%, while the 2y10y +3.009 at -33.486
  • On the data front: S&P Global US PMIs were softer than expected in preliminary April data, with mfg at 49.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.9 and services at 50.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.7. Stronger than expected new home sales tempered rate support as March marked 693k saar vs 668k prior.
  • Projected rate cut pricing moved off recent lows: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% vs. -13.6% this morning w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at -13.6bp vs. -11.1bp earlier, Sep'24 cumulative -25.6bp vs. -21.1bp
  • Looking ahead: Durable/Capital Goods, Tsy Auctions.
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