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Tsys Futures Off Overnight Lows, Trump Immunity

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have opened a touch higher this morning, with TUU4 +0-00⅝ at 102-00⅝, while TYU4 +0-03 at 109-08+, we still trade towards the bottom of overnight ranges and volumes are inline with averages.
  • Cash treasury curve has opened little changed this morning with yields +/- 0.5bp. Yields are flat to 25bps higher across the curve over the past week, there have been a number of reasons including political risk both inside and outside of the US while month/quarter end has also added to the sell-off.
  • A Trump presidency is looking likely based on currently polling, with investors believing this would lead to higher spending, tax cuts, and faster inflation
  • Furthermore, the US Supreme court ruled Trump has immunity from some criminal charges, which now shuts the small window for Trump to be put in front of a jury before the Election on Nov 5.
  • In APAC markets, ACGB yields are 4-7bps higher, curve bear-steepening, NZGB yields 1-6bps higher, curve bear-steepening, JGBs are 1-3bps higher, better selling through the belly of the curve ahead of a 10yr auction later and finally China's bull market for bonds looks to have hit a wall after the PBOC announced they will borrow govt bonds from primary dealers, with China bond 10yr bond futures selling off the most since April.
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