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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Slightly Lower In Early Trading

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures are giving back some of the overnight gains, although still trade towards the top end of the overnight ranges. TY -03+ at 108-27+ with key technical levels seen at 109-08+/110-00 (50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger) to the upside, while support is 108-00 (Low Jan 16)
  • The 10yr is +0.4bps at 4.533% in early trading, the 10yr has slightly out-performed the 5-30yrs part of the curve over the past week. BBG have reported that MLIV survey participants expect the 10yr to rise to 4.80% over the coming 6 months, the 10yr last reached this level in early Jan.
  • January retail sales are expected to soften due to harsh weather that dampened vehicle sales and shopping activity, despite strong labor market and inflation data. Headline retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.4%, while core sales (excluding autos and gas) likely to have risen 0.2%. Rebuilding efforts from natural disasters may have boosted sales of building materials, though small-business data and consumer sentiment suggest downside risks. Despite this, robust Q4 consumer spending—driven by higher wages and front-running of tariff hikes—is expected to continue supporting demand, particularly for durable goods.
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  • Tsys futures are giving back some of the overnight gains, although still trade towards the top end of the overnight ranges. TY -03+ at 108-27+ with key technical levels seen at 109-08+/110-00 (50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger) to the upside, while support is 108-00 (Low Jan 16)
  • The 10yr is +0.4bps at 4.533% in early trading, the 10yr has slightly out-performed the 5-30yrs part of the curve over the past week. BBG have reported that MLIV survey participants expect the 10yr to rise to 4.80% over the coming 6 months, the 10yr last reached this level in early Jan.
  • January retail sales are expected to soften due to harsh weather that dampened vehicle sales and shopping activity, despite strong labor market and inflation data. Headline retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.4%, while core sales (excluding autos and gas) likely to have risen 0.2%. Rebuilding efforts from natural disasters may have boosted sales of building materials, though small-business data and consumer sentiment suggest downside risks. Despite this, robust Q4 consumer spending—driven by higher wages and front-running of tariff hikes—is expected to continue supporting demand, particularly for durable goods.