MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 10

MNI BRIEF: China To Adopt Very Proactive Fiscal Policy-Offical

CANADA LIBERAL LEADERHIP VOTE TO REPLACE TRUDEAU SET FOR MAR 9

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Suspends Bonds Trades As Yields Drop

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY14.8 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1891 Fri; -2.36% Y/Y

MNI: CANADIAN NOV BUILDING PERMITS -5.9% MOM

US DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.086%

MNI: US DEC NONFARM PAYROLLS +256K; PRIVATE +223K, GOVT +33K

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady Ahead OF US Non Farms Later

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • It has been a very slow session for Tsys futures as they trade in very narrow ranges ahead of US Non-Farms later tonight. Futures are trading slightly lower, with TU -00⅛ at 102-24⅞, while TY is -01 at 108-06
  • Cash tsys have given back most of the morning's gains, with yields now flat to -0.5bps lower, the belly of the curves has outperformed throughout the session with the 2y5y20y fly dropping 1bp. The 10yr is trading -0.4bps at 4.685%.
  • Focus will all be on Nonfarm payrolls tonight, with growth seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • MNI US Payrolls Preview: Test For Fading Rate Cut Expectations - See here
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look a little firmer vs. late Wednesday levels* as follows: Jan'25 at -1.7bp, Mar'25 -11.0bp (-10.2bp), May'25 -16.4bp (-15.4bp), Jun'25 -26.9bp (-24.1bp).
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  • It has been a very slow session for Tsys futures as they trade in very narrow ranges ahead of US Non-Farms later tonight. Futures are trading slightly lower, with TU -00⅛ at 102-24⅞, while TY is -01 at 108-06
  • Cash tsys have given back most of the morning's gains, with yields now flat to -0.5bps lower, the belly of the curves has outperformed throughout the session with the 2y5y20y fly dropping 1bp. The 10yr is trading -0.4bps at 4.685%.
  • Focus will all be on Nonfarm payrolls tonight, with growth seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • MNI US Payrolls Preview: Test For Fading Rate Cut Expectations - See here
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look a little firmer vs. late Wednesday levels* as follows: Jan'25 at -1.7bp, Mar'25 -11.0bp (-10.2bp), May'25 -16.4bp (-15.4bp), Jun'25 -26.9bp (-24.1bp).