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Tsys Futures Steady, Curve Slightly Steeper

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures closed the session slightly lower and at session lows, although ranges were relatively tight. The subdued price action contrasted with fairly sharp moves for equities throughout the session on tech stock volatility, as well as notable USD strength.
  • TYU4 closed the session -0-00+ at 113-17, while TUU4 closed -0-00⅜ at 103-12, while we have opened in Asia little changed.
  • Cash treasury curves steepen slightly, yields were 0.5-2bps higher, with the 2yr yield +0.8bp to 3.865%, while the 10yr yield was +1.3bps at 3.835%, the 2s10s was +4.751 to -3.423 the least inverted since early August.
  • There was little reaction to the $70B 5Y Note auction which went relatively smoothly, with a 0.3bp tail offset by strong peripheral statistics.
  • Data overnight was limited with MBA mortgage applications showing flat weekly growth, while the re-started Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker provided further evidence of gradually softening labor market conditions.
  • Projected rate cut pricing through year end has gained vs. early Wednesday levels: Sep'24 cumulative -34.1bp (-33.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -67.4bp (-66.9bp), Dec'24 -102.6bp (-103.8bp)
  • Today, we have US GDP revisions and weekly jobless claims, as well as the final Treasury coupon supply of the month in the form of 7Y Note.
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