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Tsys Hold Range as Chair Powell Threads Policy Needle at Testimony

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish near where they started Tuesday's session, mildly weaker after some brief volatility tied to Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate (testimony to the House tomorrow).
  • Futures initially gapped higher (TYU4 up to 110-18) in reaction to more dovish comments: "It doesn't seem likely that the next policy move would be a rate increase," he told the Senate Banking Committee. "We don't take things like that off the table, but that does not seem the likely direction. The likely direction does seem to be: as we make more progress in inflation, and as a labor market remains strong, we begin to loosen policy at the right moment."
  • Support quickly evaporated as Powell stated the "Committee has stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%."
  • Treasuries extended session lows by midmorning but traded back near opening levels after the London close.
  • Treasury 10Y futures pare losses slightly (TYU4 110-12, -7) after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CKZ3) stops .6bp through: 4.399% high yield vs. 4.405% WI; 2.67x bid-to-cover vs. 2.43x prior.
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