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Tsys Hold Range Into Month-End, ISMs, UofM and More Fed Speak Friday

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures hold firmer levels for the most part, short end under pressure heading into month end, curves flatter (2s10s -1.965 at -39.526).
  • The new lead quarterly Jun'24 10Y futures currently at 110-14.5 (+3.5) vs. 110-00 low, trading inside technicals: initial technical resistance 110-26+ (20-day EMA) vs. technical support 109-25+ (Low Feb 23).
  • Futures bounced off lows following this morning's higher than expected Personal Income (1.0% vs. 0.4% est), Personal Spending came out in line at 0.2% vs est. Supercore PCE, however, at 4.2% over three-months (from 2.2% in Dec), 3.4% over six-months (from 2.8%).
  • Initial Jobless Claims higher than expected (215k vs. 210k est) while Continuing Claims climbs to 1.905M vs. 1.874M est.
  • Balance of data looked in-line: Real Personal Spending (-0.1% vs. -0.1% est); PCE Deflator MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (2.4% vs. 2.4% est), PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.4% vs. 0.4% est), YoY (2.8% vs. 2.8% est).
  • Fed speak remains balanced while leaning toward cut(s) in 2H'24. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic reiterated Thursday the central bank is likely going to be in a position to begin easing interest rates sometime in the summer, but he added that economic data will be the guide and easing can be pulled forward or pushed back.
  • Look ahead: Wrapping up the week with another busy data day: ISMs, UofM Sentiment, and more Fed Speakers.
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